State of the Cubs (5/5 - 5/11)

MAY 5TH - MAY 11TH
Monday, May 5th @ Cincinnati L 3-5
Dempster (L, 4-1), Cueto (W, 2-3), Cordero (S, 5)
Tuesday, May 6th @ Cincinnati W 3-0
Zambrano (W, 5-1), Harang (L, 1-5) Wood (S, 5)
Wednesday, May 7th @ Cincinnati L 9-0
Leiber (L, 2-2), Volquez (W, 4-1)

Friday, May 9th vs Arizona W 3-1
Haren (L, 4-2), Lilly (W, 3-4), Wood (S, 6)
Saturday, May 10th vs Arizona W 7-2
Qualls (L, 0-4), Eyre (W, 1-0)
Sunday, May 11th vs Arizona W 6-4
Pena (L, 0-1), Marmol (W, 1-0), Wood (S, 7)

I made a comment to TAS on Thursday to the effect of "If there's any team in baseball that needs an off day and a home stand, it's the Cubs. Unfortunately they've got the Diamondbacks coming in."

Coming into the weekend, the Cubs had dropped 9 of 13, lost 4 straight series, three straight against division rivals. Do understand, that I have zero doubt that the Cubs, barring major injury, will win the division. This was as true last Thursday as it is today. Monday morning's PECOTA projections show the Cubs have a better than 73% chance of making the post season, highest in the majors.

You feel better about your odds when your team is actually winning baseball games, and with the D-backs coming in, and the Cubs slumping, the chances of turning things around this past weekend looked bleak. I thought the Cubs might be able to pull a series win out of their hats, but by about 1:30 on Friday afternoon, I was certain we were in for a loooong series.

Fortunately, that was all Ted Lilly would allow, striking out ten as the Cubs got their offense from Lee, Soriano and Lilly giving the team a 3-1 come from behind win. Lilly's 7.0 IP, 10K performance is arguably his best as a Cub.

Saturday, Dempster was one questionable call on a ball away from throwing 6 shutout innings, but sometimes the calls don't go your way. It didn't matter, the Cubs came from behind again, dropping 6 on Chad Qualis and Brandon Medders in the 7th. Qualis had a sub 1 ERA coming into the game. For two straight days, the Cubs played honest to goodness championship baseball against the best team in the national league.

Sunday, the Cubs scratched Zambrano to ensure his start didn't get washed out. Sean Gallagher got the start and though his final line wasn't very impressive, he threw four sparkling innings before tiring in the fifth. Gallagher was a starter at AAA Iowa, but has been in the pen for 14 days before being stretched out Sunday. He hit 91-94 on the gun, showed decent command and had great stuff at times. Both pitchers were squeezed both high and on the outside (the strike zone was the size of the proverbial teacup yesterday, Feisty) which may have cost Gallagher a run.

Bad Chad Fox came on to put out the fire and promptly walked two batters with the bases loaded. The Cubs were able to draw even in the 7th on Reed Johnson's homer (Johnson, by the way, remains awful at baseball.) Darryl Ward came to the plate in the eighth with the bases loaded and one down.

Wood nailed down the save. Cubs sweep the Diamondbacks.

So everything is fine. Just as it was on Thursday, it just feels a lot better now. Four games this week against the brutal, brutal Padres, and three more against the Pirates who have won 5 in a row, but are 0-6 against the Cubs this year.

The way I see it, the Cubs are a legitimately good team in an awful division. They should win the Central by at least 6 games, but they're 3 or 4 pieces away from being world series contenders.

The Cubs need a legitimate #2 starter. This is going to be the hardest piece to find. Who knows, maybe you catch lightening in a bottle with Gallagher, in all likelihood you're going to have to go and trade for a piece from a team that decides to be a seller at the deadline.

They also need another reliable arm in the bullpen. I kinda think this one will work itself out... Relievers are very fleeting. By definition, they're the worst players on your team. Pitchers who aren't good enough to be closers or starters. The Cubs have guys in Howrey, Wurtz and Eyre who have shown they're more than capable of being good relievers in the past it's highly unlikely they'll be as bad as they've been to start the season. If you can get one of those three guys good to pair with Marmol and Wood (who I'm warming on) you should be fine.

The Cubs need an outfielder who can play Center, either as a starter or a 4th outfielder, because -and I'm going to keep beating the drum on this one- Reed Johnson is not the answer. If it were up to me, I'd play Felix Pie every day. Soriano is starting to hit, Lee, Fukudome and Ramirez are all playing well. Soto is hitting like Mike Piazza right now. The team can afford to let Pie start for a few weeks and see if he can't figure major league pitching out. The guy bats like .450 at AAA, he's not going to get better down there, he's also not going to get better playing once every five days. He needs to start regularly.

If you can find a guy to start in center, great, if you can find a starting corner outfielder, you can move Fukudome to center. Regardless, you need to add another outfielder. It looks like Hendry wants to take a shot on Jim Edmonds. Which... whatever. If he's got anything left in the tank it's worth taking a flier on him, I just don't think he's got anything left in the tank.

Finally, the Cubs need a middle infielder. Second or short, doesn't matter, just somebody that gets Fontenot off the team and Theriot to the bench. Ideally you'd play this addition at their natural position and Cedeno at the other postion, you'd have DeRosa be the super sub and Theriot the backup. That's probably not going to happen, though, so hopefully you can strengthen the team at 2nd, and make your team better by playing Cedeno at short more often (thus keeping Hustle McFaggerton on the bench.)