State of the Cubs (7/28 - 8/3)

Monday, July 28th @ Milwaukee W 6-4
Gaudin (W, 7-4), Torres (L, 5-3), Marmol (S, 5)
Tuesday, July 29th @ Milwaukee W 7-1
Zambrano (W, 12-4), Sheets (L, 10-4)
Wednesday, July 30th @ Milwaukee W 7-2
Dempster (W, 12-4), Parra (L, 9-4)
Thursday, July 31st @ Milwaukee W 11-4
Harden (W, 1-1), Bush (L, 5-9)
Friday, August 1st vs Pittsburgh L 3-0
Karstens (W, 1-0), Marquis (L, 6-7), Grabow (S, 1)
Saturday, August 2nd vs Pittsburgh W 5-1
Maholm (L, 7-7), Lilly (W, 11-6)
Sunday, August 3rd vs Pittsburgh W 8-5
Hansen (L, 1-4), Gaudin (BS, W, 8-4), Marmol (S, 6)

Satisfying baseball.

Following Monday's seesaw victory over the Brewers in Milwaukee, in what felt like a playoff game, the Cubs went on to drub the Brewers in the next three by a combined score of 25-7. The Brewers pitching was bad, defense was worse and the bats were stifled by four outstanding performances from Lilly, Zambrano, Dempster, and Harden.

Rich Harden, by the way, in 4 starts as a Cub, is 1-1, he should be 4-0. In 27 1/3rd he's given up a grand total of three runs on three solo homers. He's also struck out 39 while posting a 1.11 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. Rich Harden is really, really, really good at sports, and when healthy, he's a better pitcher than Carlos Zambrano.

Jason Marquis took the ball on friday and gave the Cubs a quality start, while the bats were shut down by Matt Karstens. The Cubs had the bases loaded in the 4th, and 2 on in the 5th, 6th and 8th and couldn't plate a single run. I don't really go in for the whole "letdown game" concept, but if ever you're allowed one, it'd be in a game in which you're coming off a 4 game series sweep of the team that was tied with you as early as last Sunday morning.

Saturday and Sunday the Cubs took care of business, despite a not so great start on Saturday by Ted Lilly in which he worked out of a few really bad jams and got some really nice breaks. Sunday the Cubs appeared to be crusing, they took Z out to save some wear on his arm, the bullpen kinda shat itself, then, like a big brother who comes across his younger sibling playing with his toys, the Cubs simply said "not for you" and swiped the game back from the Pirates with back to back homers in the bottom of the 8th.

Carlos Marmol was able to get the save. I think I trust him again. Probably... mabye.

State of the Cubs (7/18 - 7/28)

Friday, July 18th @ Houston L 2-1
Howry (L, 3-3), Geary (W, 3-1)
Saturday, July 19th @ Houston L 4-1
Zambrano (L, 10-4), Rodriguez (W, 5-3), Valverde (S, 25)
Sunday, July 20th @ Houston W 9 -0
Dempster (W, 11-4), Backe (L, 6-10)

Monday, July 21st @ Arizona L 2-0
Harden (L, 5-2), Johnson (W, 7-7), Quails (S, 2)
Tuesday, July 22nd @ Arizona L 9-2
Marquis (L, 6-6), Petit (W, 1-1)
Wednesday, July 23rd @ Arizona W 10-6
Lilly (W, 10-6), Davis (L, 5-5)
Thursday, July 24th vs Florida W 6-3
Olsen (L, 6-5), Zambrano (W, 11-4), Marmol (S, 4)
Friday, July 25th vs Florida L, 3-2
[Justin] Miller (W, 3-2), Howry (L, 3-4), Gregg (S, 21)
Saturday, July 26th vs Florida L 3-2
[Justin] Miller (W, 4-2), Gaudin (L, 5-4), Gregg (S, 22)
Sunday, July 27th vs Florida W 9-6
Hendrickson (L, 7-8), Gaudin (W, 6-4), Smardzjia (S, 1)

Monday, July 28th @ Milwaukee W 6-4
Gaudin (W, 7-4) Torres (L, 5-3) Marmol (S, 5)

Frustrating baseball.

That's about the easiest way to summarize the first nine games after the all star break. Bullpen bad, offense impotent, starters throwing really well with nothing to show for it. Games have never come easy for the Cubs in Houston or Arizona, or vs the Marlins anywhere, and I suppose given that 3-6 in 9 games vs those 3 clubs can almost be considered holding serve, but with the Brewers steamrolling through the national league, watching a 6 game lead evaporating to a tie while you're not getting blown out and you're giving up leads late is just eminently frustrating.

I believe baseball teams are what they are. Injuries not withstanding, teams don't get significantly better or worse. They play really well at certain points and really poorly at certain points, but things even out in the end. I also believe this Chicago Cubs team is a collection of excellent talent, coming together to form a great-borderline-excellent baseball team.

Sunday and Monday the Cubs looked and felt like the team they were earlier in the season when they were rolling off long winning streaks, crushing the baseball, and locking down leads late. Bobby Howry is probably not long for this team, but Chad Gaudin has stepped up, he may prove to be almost an important as Rich Harden down the stretch. Jeff Samardzija is probably going to be a starting pitcher in 2009, but he is going to be an invaluable cog in the bullpen if the Cubs are going to go deep into October.

And maybe, just maybe, Carlos Marmol has learned to pitch again.

Maybe.

State of the Cubs (6/30 - 7/13)

Monday, June 30th @ San Francisco W 9-2
Lilly (W, 9-5), Lilly (L, 3-12)
Tuesday, July 1st @ San Francisco L 2-1
Marquis (L, 6-5), Cain (W, 5-6) Wilson (S, 23)
Wednesday, July 2nd @ San Francisco W 6-5
Marmol (W, 2-3), Walker (L, 3-4), Wood (S, 21)
Thursday,July 3rd @ San Francisco L 8-3
Gallagher (L, 3-4), Lincecum (W, 10-1)
Friday, July 4th @ St Louis W 2-1
Zambrano (W, 9-3), Looper (L, 9-6), Wood (S, 22)
Saturday, July 5th @ St Louis L 5-4
Wood (L, 4-2), McClellan (W, 1-3)
Sunday, July 6th @ St Louis W 7-1
Marshall (W, 1-2), Wellemeyer (L, 7-4)


Tuesday, July 8th vs Cincinnati W 7-3
Harang (L, 3-11), Dempster (W, 10-3)
Wednesday, July 9th vs Cincinnati W 5-1
Cueto (L, 7-9), Zambrano (W, 10-3), Wood (S, 23)
Thursday, July 10th vs Cincinnati L 12-7
Arroyo (W, 7-7), Lilly (L, 9-6)
Friday, July 11th vs San Francisco W 3-1
Walker (L, 3-5), Howry (W, 3-2), Wood (S, 24)
Saturday, July 12th vs San Francisco W 8-7
Wilson (L, 0-2), Harden (W, 6-1) Marshall (W, 2-2)
Sunday, July 13th vs San Francisco L 4-2
Lincecum (W, 11-2), Dempster (L, 10-4), Wilson (S, 25)

A very special State of the Cubs double wide as we head into the all star break. Lack of updates last week can be blamed on laziness and lack of thoughts on the Rich Harden acquisition can be blamed on me being away from internet access for a period of 48 hours at the worst possible time.

Let's get the Rich Harden acquisition out of the way first:

If you think the Cubs made a mistake by dealing away the four guys they did, you're an idiot. I'm not going to bother with a long explanation of why, it's been done time and again ad nauseum on sports talk radio, in the papers, and on internet outlets that actually update in a timely manner. Suffice it to say, Rich Harden is going to make 5 starts that matter this season, and they'll all take place in October. If you'd rather have the potential that Gallagher becomes a number two starter in two years and the miniscule posibility that even on of the other three guys becoming even an average every day major leaguer over adding another number one starter who will increase your odds of winning in the playoffs and securing the first World Series title for this franchise IN ONE HUNDRED MOTHER FUCKING YEARS then you're a bad fan, and a fool.

Oh, the same deal that gave you a legitimate ace starter also added another quality arm to the bullpen. Just sayin.

Anywho, last week, the Cubs played the final 7 games of a 10 game road trip after being swept by the White Sox the weekend before. Though it pains me to type this because it's so damn hokey, this year's Giants motto ought to be "Lincecum and Cain and pray for rain" because beyond that, the Giants have Aaron Rowand and a lot of garbage. Bowker might be a decent player some day, but the team seems to be nothing more than a horrid amalgamation of quadruple-Aers and guys who were all stars back in the mid-to-late 90s.

In 29 innings vs the Cubs the past two weeks, Lincecum and Cain have given up 18 H and 4 ER, while striking out 36 and walking 8. that's a 1.24 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and a 4.5/1 K/BB ratio.

Normally one would probably feel bad to see their team lose 3 of 7 to the Giants, but given those numbers I'm shocked the Cubs were even able to steal Friday's game. No shame in losing to either of those two pitchers, but you should beat them every time someone else starts, and that's exactly what the Cubs did even if there were some... questionable games.

Carlos Marmol was bad. Twice. Bad last week in San Fran and really, horribly, terrifyingly bad in Chicago on Saturday. Behind a sterling performance from Rich Harden the Cubs lead 7-0 after 7 and 7-2 after 8. Marmol came in and... well even with a 5 run lead the Cubs had to bat again. Sean Marshall put together an incredible performance both on the mound and leading off the 11th with a single, and the Cubs were able to scratch across a run in the 11th to win a game they had no business winning after the performances of Marmol, Theriot, and Piniella.

Sandwiched between the two Giants series were 3 game sets against the Cardinals and Reds. The Cubs took two out of three in both, highlights included Zambrano's triumphant return, another amazing start by Z, a win from Dempster and an excellent performance from Sean Marshall against the Cards. Lowlights were Wood's performance in game 2 in St. Louis and a typical wind blowing out Ted Lilly game where Reds batters tattooed the entire Cubs staff and Adam Dunn hit a ball about seven thousand feet.

As Cubs fans, we've been spoiled by the team this season, ripping off 8 wins in a row and just bludgeoning opponents, seemingly without breaking a sweat. These past two weeks we haven't seen that kind of dominance, and we probably shouldn't expect to, instead these two weeks have been a pretty accurate microcosm of what this team really is, a ballclub not without it's blemishes, but capable of winning every time out, and one that is very very capable of winning the World Series with a little bit of luck at the right times.

57-38 at the All Star Break
PECOTA expected record 97-65
PECOTA playoff odds 94%

State of the Cubs and State of the Sox...

...Will return next week to recap the past two weeks of baseball, and separate looks back at the first half of the season.

State of the Cubs (6/24 - 6/29)

Tuesday, June 24th vs Baltimore L 7-5
Guthrie (W, 1-0), Marshall (L, 0-1), Sherrill (S, 26)
Wednesday, June 25th vs Baltimore W 7-4
Albers (L, 3-3), Lilly (W, 8-5), Wood (S, 20)
Thursday, June 26th vs Baltimore L 11-4
Liz (W, 2-0), Marquis (L, 6-4)
Friday, June 27th @ Chicago White Sox L 10-3
Dempster (L, 9-3), Contreras (W, 7-6)
Saturday, June 28th @ Chicago White Sox L 6-5
Marmol (L, 1-3), Thornton (W,4-1), Jenks (S, 18)
Sunday, June 29st @ Chicago White Sox L 5-1
Marshall (L, 0-2), Buehrle (W, 6-5)

Defense: bad; pitching: bad; offense: bad; offense RISP: really really bad. Back to back really really bad blowouts on Thursday and Friday, a game that was just as unwinnable on Sunday, two games where porous defense and some shitty bullpen outings screwed the team in the middle innings on Tuesday and Saturday and a win that felt like a loss on Wednesday.

Dat' about sum dat' up.

On the bright side, the Cubs get to face Barry Zito tonight, the Giants, and hell, the NL West are a cure for what ails ya. Yes it's a road series, but the Giants blow and the Cubs should take 3 of 4. The Cubs then get 3 games against the Cardinals in St Louis. The Cubs could concieveably put the Cardinals out of the race with a torrid week this week, and we've had multiple weeks like that this season. I'm not saying it's going to happen, I'm just saying that there's really no reason to panic just because the Ebb and Flow of the baseball season gave you a low tide week these past six games.

Despite the fact that the Cubs dropped 5 of 6, they only lost two in the division, which I guess doesn't make anyone feel any better, but their post season odds only fell about 4% this team is making the playoffs, no matter how unfun this week was. If you're really upset about losing to the White Sox, 1, grow up; 2, be happy that the Sox are winning, because the more they win, the more likley the Indians are to trade CC Sabathia.

State of the Cubs (6/17 - 6/22)

Tuesday, June 17th @ Tampa Bay L 3-2
Cotts (L, 0-1), Balfour (W, 1-0) Percival (S, 16)
Wednesday, June 18th @ Tampa Bay L 5-4
Zambrano (L, 8-3), Sonnanstine (W, 8-3), Percival (S, 17)
Thursday, June 19th @ Tampa Bay L 8-3
Marmol (L, 1-2), Balfour (W, 2-o)
Friday, June 19th vs Chicago White Sox W 4-3
Linebrink (L, 2-2), Wood (W, 4-1)
Saturday, June 20th vs Chicago White Sox W 11-7
Contreras (L, 6-6), Marquis (W, 6-3), Wood (S, 19)
Sunday, June 21st vs Chicago White Sox W 7-1
Vazquez (L, 7-6), Dempster (W, 9-3)

Very few answers, a few new questions. Didn't learn anything about the Cubs this week. At home they are easily the best team in baseball, and for some reason (probably still small sample size) they're not as good on the road, that or they're just unlucky, which goes back to sample size. The Cubs haven't lost in Wrigley in over a month, they're 32-8 in that stadium. Doesn't matter what happens, two home runs early, two home runs middle, 9 runs here or there, you come to Wrigley Field, you lose.

The new questions, are Zambrano and Marmol. These are scary, your best starter is hurt, and your best reliever cannot find the strike zone. Zambrano should be back in a few weeks, but injuries to your shoulder are far more significant than elbow, forearm or hand injures for a pitcher, THANK GOD Giovanni Soto showed poise and awareness far beyond his years and called the trainers when he did. The Cubs can win the division without Z, but there is no chance they win a playoff series.

Carlos Marmol's last two outings have included five walks, five earned runs, two hit batsmen, a wild pitch, and a loss. His mechanics could be off because he hasn't been used as frequently, his arm could be injured because he's been used too much overall, or he could be turning into Rick Ankiel, and no, I don't mean a power hitting outfielder. Hopefully it's the mechanics, and the injury would still be preferable to him becoming a headcase, but regardless, that's another big, big piece of the Cubs puzzle, if it's lost, it's going to need to be replaced before the playoffs.

Still, the Cubs remain in an excellent position. They have a few chips in the farm system to deal to bolster the team, and they're now 4.5 up on the division, with the best team in baseball taking the field every day. Ryan Dempster is an honest to goodness all star, even though he's probably having a (once in a) career year.

87.6% chance of winning the division, 96.2% of making the post season

State of the Cubs (6/10 - 6/15)

Tuesday, June 10th vs Atlanta W 10-5
Glavin (L, 2-3), Lilly (W, 6-5)
Wednesday, June 11th vs Atlanta W 7-2
Bennett (L, 2-2), Dempster (W, 8-2)
Thursday, June 12th vs Atlanta W 3-2, (11 Inn)
Acosta (L, 3-5), Wood (W, 3-1)
Friday, June 13th @ Toronto L 3-2
Gallagher (L, 3-3), Burnett (W, 6-5), Ryan (S, 14)
Saturday, June 14th @ Los Angeles W 6-2
Marquis (W, 5-3), Halladay (L, 8-6)
Sunday, June 15th @ Los Angeles W 7-4
Lilly (W, 7-5), Litsch (L, 7-3)

I don't really know what to say about this week. that was pretty much masterful baseball all around. Poor Sean Gallagher fell victim to the offense taking another Friday night off as he again goes 5 innings and gives up just three runs (which, though an inning shy of the official definition of a quality start, is about all you can ask from the kid.) The Cubs loaded the bases twice, once in the first, once in the sixth and managed to plate only one run in those two opportunities. Ryan Theriot found yet another way to generate outs when he tried to advance to third on a ground ball in the first.

The Jim Edmonds A.K.A. Jimmy Ballgame A.K.A. James Baseball signing continues to pay off way more than it has any right to, as Edmonds's batting average as a Cub is up to .309 and he currently sports a very healthy .857 OPS as a Cub. He is so much better at baseball than Reed Johnson it's not even funny, and he's a lefty to boot.

Speaking of good ole' Reed, big time props to #9 as his home run on Saturday finally propelled his offensive VORP to 2.8, and moving him ahead of Ted Lilly. Congratulations, Reed, your offensive run production is now greater than that of one of the worst hitting pitchers I've ever seen and it only took you 69 games to do it.

Edmonds is hitting, Jason Marquis has won three games in a row, and Ryan Dempster goes for his 9th win of the season tomorrow, with 6 more starts left before the all star game. Something is very, very wrong and I like it.

PECOTA as of Monday morning: 99-63, 89% chance of winning the division, 95.9% chance of making the post season

State of the Cubs (6/2 - 6/8)

Monday, June 2nd @ San Diego W 7-6
Zambrano (W, 8-1), Baek (L, 1-2), Wood (S, 15)
Tuesday, June 3rd @ San Diego W 9-6
Marquis (W, 3-3), Corey (L, 1-1) Wood (S, 16)
Wednesday, June 4th @ San Diego L 2-1
Lilly (L, 5-5), Bell (W, 3-3), Hoffman (S, 12)
Thursday, June 5th @ Los Angeles W 5-4
Howry (W, 2-2), Saito (L, 3-2) Wood (S, 17)
Friday, June 6th @ Los Angeles L 3-0
Gallagher (L, 3-2), Kuroda (W, 3-5)
Saturday, June 7th @ Los Angeles L 7-3
Zambrano (L, 8-2), Lowe (W, 4-5)
Sunday, June 8th @ Los Angeles W 3-1
Marquis (W, 4-3), Penny (L, 5-8), Wood (S, 18)

And there you go, folks, a series win and an over .500 road trip in which the cubs managed to tally 7, 9, and 5. Hopefully that can silence some of the road trip hysteria. Looking at the 3 losses, you had a game in which Hiroki Kuroda pitched out of his damn mind, going 9 innings and allowing just 4 baserunners while striking out 11. While they're not fun, that's going to happen. You can say the same about the Maddux game (the Heath Bell W.) Then you had Saturday... well... I'll get to that in a moment.

Point is, two of your three losses this week were games in which the other teams starter just gave you an ass beating, and that's ok. The Cubs have already proven that they're one of, if not the most potent offense in major league baseball. Sometimes, you just go out and get buzz sawed. The fact that those are generally the only games they're losing right now proves that the team is just as "hot" right now on the road as it was at home.

But then you've got Saturday's game. Saturday's game reminded me of the 2004 Cubs. Zambrano was cruising, up 2-0 in the 6th when he gave up the 2 run bomb to Martin, tie game. Cubs come back and tally one in the top of the 7th. Bottom of the 7th, Z gets the first batter, Pierre gets on and is dead to rights trying to steal second, but The Scraptain, Grindy McGrinderson, Ryan Theriot can't hold onto Soto's throw, (for the second time that game, I might add) should be 2 outs. Next batter Pierre scores as Ramirez throws the ball away. It was ruled a hit and an error, but you could very well make the argument that it was E5 all the way. Either way, Pierre never should have scored.

Instead of being out of the inning, or having 2 outs and a runner on first, you now have one out, a runner on first and a run in. Z's D failed him, and at this point it was clear to apparently everyone watching the game with the exception of Lou Piniella that Z needed to come out of the game. Marmol hadn't been used in a few days, he's the best reliever in the NL, THIS IS WHY YOU HAVE HIM. Not to get 5 outs when you're up by 4 runs like Lou tried on Monday.
Howry, Weurtz, Eyre, ANYBODY would have been a better option than leaving Zambrano in at this point, and he proved it, first by giving up a 3 run bomb to Matt Kemp and then by going nuts on the water coolers in the dugout. I wish he'd stop acting like a child, cause one of these days he's going to get hurt, but I can sympathize with him. He put the Cubs in a perfect position to win the game and his defense and manager let him down big time.

If you like that old axiom "you're going to win 60 games and lose 60 games, it's what you do with the 0ther 42 that decides how your season goes" the losses on Wednesday and Friday were in the big pile of 60 losses, the Saturday game was one of the "other 42" a game right there for the taking that the team just pissed down their leg.

But... light at the end of a very short tunnel. Despite losing a game they absolutely should have won on Saturday, after being shut out on Friday, they went out on Sunday Night Baseball, with what is unquestionably their worst starter on the mound, and had him completely shut down the Dodgers to split the series, finish above .500 on the road trip, and stay out of the tailspin that would have befallen so many past Cubs teams.

As Vin Scully once said, momentum in baseball is tomorrow's starting pitcher. "Tomorrow's Starting Pitcher" was Jason Marquis twice this week, and he found a way to win both of those games. That's the mark of a quality baseball team. 97-65, 88+% chance of making the post season

Kudos to Kerry Wood. 4 saves, 7 Ks in 3.2 IP. 0.00 ERA, 0.82 WHIP for the week.

State of the cubs (5/26 - 6/1) AKA, the team I root for is really really good at baseball

MAY 26TH - JUNE 1ST
Monday, May 26th vs Los Angeles W 3-1
Billingsly (L, 4-6), Dempster (W, 6-2), Wood (S, 11)
Tuesday, May 27th vs Los Angeles W 3-1
Kuroda (L, 2-4), Gallagher (W, 2-1), Wood (S, 12)
Wednesday, May 28th vs Los Angeles W 2-1 (10 Inn)
Park (L, 1-1), Howry (W, 1-2)
Thursday, May 29th vs Colorado W 8-4
Herges (L, 2-2), Wuertz (W, 1-1)
Friday, May 30th vs Colorado W 10-9
Corpas (L, 0-3), Eyre (W, 2-0), Wood (S, 13)
Saturday, May 31st vs Colorado W 5-4
Rusch (L, 1-3), Dempster (W, 7-2), Marmol (S, 3)
Sunday, June 1st vs Colorado W 5-3
Jimenez (L, 1-6), Gallagher (W, 3-1), Wood (S, 14)

These are the weeks you dream of. The Cubs swept the Dodgers and the Rockies to go 7-0 on the homestand, and 7-0 on the week. Overall they've gone 15-2 in their last 17 at home and 17-6 in the last three weeks. With the exception of Monday's game, the Cubs trailed in every single contest, and managed to come back and win. There's no question that the Cubs offense is what makes this team go, but this week it was the pitching staff, and especially the bullpen that secured the majority of the victories.

And then there was Friday.

Much like the Kerry Wood 20 K game, and the game against the Astros in 89' you will see this game on Rain Delay Theater for the next 20 years. In the grand scheme of things, it means way less to this team than last year's 5 run comeback against the Brewers when Aramis Ramirez hit a bomb in the bottom of the 9th. It was also less wacky than last years game against the Rockies (Cubs lead 8-3 going into the top of the 9th, won 10-9.) There was little or no intrinsic baseball value to the friday comeback, in all likelihood that game is going to be the difference between the Cubs winning the division by 7 games and the Cubs winning the division by 8 games.

But screw it's intrinsic value. Friday was one of those things that sportswriters like to call "statement games" the statement being: "Nobody's beating this team at Wrigley Field."

The Cubs were down 4-0 before they even took an AB, they were down 7-0 in the bottom of the 3rd, 8-0 in the bottom of the 4th, 9-1 by the bottom of the 5th, and that was still the score going into the bottom of the 6th. Lou Piniella pulled both Derrick Lee and Geo Soto. Edmonds and Fukudome both hit homers in the bottom of the 6th, to make it 9-4.

In the 7th inning, the Cubs scored 5 more runs to take a 10-9 lead. For it's part, the offense just kept hitting fly balls. It was the bullpen that made it stand up. The Cubs pen only allowed 2 ER in 6 innings on a day when Ted Lilly got rocked and any fly ball hit out of the infield was carried into the bleachers.

Now the Cubs have to go on the road. The next 7 games are on the west coast, the next 5 games are all late starts (including a 9:40 pm first pitch on Friday, Jesus Christ MLB.) The Cubs will play 13 of their next 16 and 26 out of their next 32 on the road, although 3 of those "road" games are at US Cellular in what is essentially a 9 game home stand.

Tonight the Cubs also begin a stretch of 29 straight games against teams out of the NL Central. This is the perfect opportunity for the Cubs to cast away any last shred of doubt about them "only beating up on the Pirates" and "not being able to win on the road." As I showed last week with the Cubs BABIP home/road splits, I'm really not worried about the team's road offense, it'll come around, it's just a fluke brought on by small sample size, that being said, though the Padres are the perfect team to get fat off of, they do play in one of the worst, if not THE worst offensive ballparks in all of baseball, and if there were ever a perfect storm for a Cubs offensive letdown, it'd be this week, cause Dodger Stadium isn't exactly hitter friendly either.

So even if the Cubs road woes continue and they go 3-4 or 2-5 this week, don't worry about it. This morning's PECOTA projections have the Cubs finishing at 96-66 with an 85% chance of making the post season.

If you're feeling it, you're right, and the hard data proves it. This is easily the best team since 84, and possibly the best since 69 or 45, enjoy it Cubs fans.

State of the Cubs (5/19 - 5/25)

MAY 19TH - MAY 25TH
Monday, May 19th vs Houston W 7-2
Lilly (W, 5-4), Moehler (L, 1-1)
Tuesday, May 20th vs Houston L 4-2
Dempster (L, 5-2), Sampson (W, 3-3), (S, Valverde 13)
Wednesday, May 21st vs Houston L 5-3
Gallagher (L, 1-1), Chacon (W, 1-0) (S, Valverde 14)

Friday, May 23rd vs Pittsburgh W 12-3
Zambrano (W, 7-1), Duke (L, 2-3)
Saturday, May 24th vs Pittsburgh L 5-4 (14 Inn)
Wuertz (L, 0-1), Grabow (W, 4-1)
Sunday, May 25th vs Pittsburgh L 6-5 (11 Inn)
Leiber (L, 2-3), Marte (W, 4-0)

The Cubs went 2-4 on the road this week with two series that mirrored each other. Both began with promising blowout victories and ended with eminently frustrating back to back losses.

Despite the fact that Sunday's loss, coupled with the Cardinals victory over the Dodgers knocked the Cubs back to second in the division, Cubs fans shouldn't worry.

Looking at the Houston series, the Cubs lost games 2 and 3 because their offense failed to have more than one productive inning in each game. It's a fact that the Cubs are struggling to hit on the road, and bludgeoning teams at Wrigley, but for the most part, it seems to be a fluke. My buddies over at Another Cubs Blog took a look at the home and road BABIP splits. The Cubs hit a lot of line drives, and teams that do score lots of runs, it just so happens that less balls are falling in, and as the season goes on and the sample size gets bigger, the team will score more runs away from Wrigley.

Offense really wasn't a problem in the Pittsburgh series. What happened in that series happens to all teams throughout a season, you have a team beat twice, in one game your closer hits a guy then can't get out of the 9th, in the other your left fielder drops a ball in the sun. Both things happen, both things suck, both are things you should be frustrated about, but big picture they're not that big a deal, the Cubs should have two more wins right now, but this team is still going to win 87-93 games and probably win the division by 6 games.

...I'd just feel a lot better with a different closer.

State of the cubs (5/12 - 5/18)

MAY 12TH - MAY 18TH
Monday, May 12th vs San Diego W 12-3
Wolf (L, 2-3), Zambrano (W, 6-1)
Tuesday, May 13th vs San Diego L 4-3
Estes (W, 1-0), Marquis (L, 1-3), (S, Hoffman 7)
Wednesday, May 14th vs San Diego W 8-5
Peavy (L, 4-3), Lilly (W, 4-4)
Thursday, May 15th vs San Diego W 4-0
Maddux (L, 3-4), Dempster (W, 5-1) Wood (S, 8)
Friday, May 16th vs Pittsburgh W 7-4
Gorzelanny (L, 3-4), Gallagher (W, 1-0), Wood (S, 9)
Saturday, May 17th vs Pittsburgh L 7-6
Marte (W, 3-0), Marmol (L, 1-1) Capps (S, 10)
Sunday, May 18th vs Pittsburgh W 4-3
Dumatrait (L, 1-2), Marquis (W, 2-3), Wood (S, 10)

Yes, the Cubs went 5-2 this week to complete an 8-2 homestand. And yes, the team is now 27-17 possessing the second best record in all of major league baseball, and YES, they're two games up on the rest of the NL Central and their seven games up on the Brewers who were supposed to be the only real competition in the division.

While all of that is certainly a big deal, the story of the week, is this guy:


That's right, no word wrap, he's that good.

In case you haven't been paying attention in the past week, Alfonso Soriano has posted the following:

16/31, 10 runs scored, 7 homers, 14 RBI.

The rest of the Cubs have been hitting league average this week and yet the team's run differential was a +16.

Monday morning's PECOTA projections give the Cubs a better than 68% chance of winning the division, and better than 9% chance of winning the wild card if they don't. Overall they have better than a 77% chance of making the playoffs, best of any team in the major leagues.

The Cubs have three games coming up against the Astros starting tonight, and three more against the Pirates this weekend. The middle of the Astros' lineup has been killing the ball lately and the 'Stros are 2.5 back of the Cubs in third place in the division.

Zambrano's meltdown on Saturday was unfortunate. He's scheduled to go on Friday against the Pirates at PNC. Getting him back into his proper mental state is going to be the most important task for the Cubs this week. Granted, you'd like to win 4 or 5 games and bury everyone in the division besides the Cardinals, but the truth is all of those teams, including St. Louis, will bury themselves. I don't think there's anything to worry about with Z, but I want to see him go out and throw a solid game this week.

State of the Cubs (5/5 - 5/11)

MAY 5TH - MAY 11TH
Monday, May 5th @ Cincinnati L 3-5
Dempster (L, 4-1), Cueto (W, 2-3), Cordero (S, 5)
Tuesday, May 6th @ Cincinnati W 3-0
Zambrano (W, 5-1), Harang (L, 1-5) Wood (S, 5)
Wednesday, May 7th @ Cincinnati L 9-0
Leiber (L, 2-2), Volquez (W, 4-1)

Friday, May 9th vs Arizona W 3-1
Haren (L, 4-2), Lilly (W, 3-4), Wood (S, 6)
Saturday, May 10th vs Arizona W 7-2
Qualls (L, 0-4), Eyre (W, 1-0)
Sunday, May 11th vs Arizona W 6-4
Pena (L, 0-1), Marmol (W, 1-0), Wood (S, 7)

I made a comment to TAS on Thursday to the effect of "If there's any team in baseball that needs an off day and a home stand, it's the Cubs. Unfortunately they've got the Diamondbacks coming in."

Coming into the weekend, the Cubs had dropped 9 of 13, lost 4 straight series, three straight against division rivals. Do understand, that I have zero doubt that the Cubs, barring major injury, will win the division. This was as true last Thursday as it is today. Monday morning's PECOTA projections show the Cubs have a better than 73% chance of making the post season, highest in the majors.

You feel better about your odds when your team is actually winning baseball games, and with the D-backs coming in, and the Cubs slumping, the chances of turning things around this past weekend looked bleak. I thought the Cubs might be able to pull a series win out of their hats, but by about 1:30 on Friday afternoon, I was certain we were in for a loooong series.

Fortunately, that was all Ted Lilly would allow, striking out ten as the Cubs got their offense from Lee, Soriano and Lilly giving the team a 3-1 come from behind win. Lilly's 7.0 IP, 10K performance is arguably his best as a Cub.

Saturday, Dempster was one questionable call on a ball away from throwing 6 shutout innings, but sometimes the calls don't go your way. It didn't matter, the Cubs came from behind again, dropping 6 on Chad Qualis and Brandon Medders in the 7th. Qualis had a sub 1 ERA coming into the game. For two straight days, the Cubs played honest to goodness championship baseball against the best team in the national league.

Sunday, the Cubs scratched Zambrano to ensure his start didn't get washed out. Sean Gallagher got the start and though his final line wasn't very impressive, he threw four sparkling innings before tiring in the fifth. Gallagher was a starter at AAA Iowa, but has been in the pen for 14 days before being stretched out Sunday. He hit 91-94 on the gun, showed decent command and had great stuff at times. Both pitchers were squeezed both high and on the outside (the strike zone was the size of the proverbial teacup yesterday, Feisty) which may have cost Gallagher a run.

Bad Chad Fox came on to put out the fire and promptly walked two batters with the bases loaded. The Cubs were able to draw even in the 7th on Reed Johnson's homer (Johnson, by the way, remains awful at baseball.) Darryl Ward came to the plate in the eighth with the bases loaded and one down.

Wood nailed down the save. Cubs sweep the Diamondbacks.

So everything is fine. Just as it was on Thursday, it just feels a lot better now. Four games this week against the brutal, brutal Padres, and three more against the Pirates who have won 5 in a row, but are 0-6 against the Cubs this year.

The way I see it, the Cubs are a legitimately good team in an awful division. They should win the Central by at least 6 games, but they're 3 or 4 pieces away from being world series contenders.

The Cubs need a legitimate #2 starter. This is going to be the hardest piece to find. Who knows, maybe you catch lightening in a bottle with Gallagher, in all likelihood you're going to have to go and trade for a piece from a team that decides to be a seller at the deadline.

They also need another reliable arm in the bullpen. I kinda think this one will work itself out... Relievers are very fleeting. By definition, they're the worst players on your team. Pitchers who aren't good enough to be closers or starters. The Cubs have guys in Howrey, Wurtz and Eyre who have shown they're more than capable of being good relievers in the past it's highly unlikely they'll be as bad as they've been to start the season. If you can get one of those three guys good to pair with Marmol and Wood (who I'm warming on) you should be fine.

The Cubs need an outfielder who can play Center, either as a starter or a 4th outfielder, because -and I'm going to keep beating the drum on this one- Reed Johnson is not the answer. If it were up to me, I'd play Felix Pie every day. Soriano is starting to hit, Lee, Fukudome and Ramirez are all playing well. Soto is hitting like Mike Piazza right now. The team can afford to let Pie start for a few weeks and see if he can't figure major league pitching out. The guy bats like .450 at AAA, he's not going to get better down there, he's also not going to get better playing once every five days. He needs to start regularly.

If you can find a guy to start in center, great, if you can find a starting corner outfielder, you can move Fukudome to center. Regardless, you need to add another outfielder. It looks like Hendry wants to take a shot on Jim Edmonds. Which... whatever. If he's got anything left in the tank it's worth taking a flier on him, I just don't think he's got anything left in the tank.

Finally, the Cubs need a middle infielder. Second or short, doesn't matter, just somebody that gets Fontenot off the team and Theriot to the bench. Ideally you'd play this addition at their natural position and Cedeno at the other postion, you'd have DeRosa be the super sub and Theriot the backup. That's probably not going to happen, though, so hopefully you can strengthen the team at 2nd, and make your team better by playing Cedeno at short more often (thus keeping Hustle McFaggerton on the bench.)