Friday, August 8, 2008

Why the Sox acquired Ken Griffey Jr.

I think the most common reaction to the Sox going out and picking up Ken Griffey Jr. right at the trade deadline was "...wuh?" On the surface, I think this was probably the correct reaction. The Sox really don't have a place to play him. Griffey is probably a DH at this point, he had been playing right, and can sorta-kinda-not-really play center field. In center, the Sox have Swisher, Anderson and Dwayne Wise. In right, the Sox have Dye, at 1st, Konerko, DH, Thome.

Playing Griffey means sitting one of Dye, Swisher, Konerko, or Thome. Despite the knee jerk reaction to just sit Konerko, the Sox aren't going to be doing that. The Sox are built to win the world series this year, and they're not going to be doing that without Paul Konerko hitting well, so they've got to play him till he gets out of his funk. Even if you're going to bench Konerko, it'd probably be for Swisher, and you'd put Anderson in center because of his defense.

The reason the Sox got Griffey is that it gives them a decent enough player to play while they sit Jim Thome, either by just playing Griffey at DH, or playing him in right and letting Dye DH for a day or two to get some rest.

Jim Thome has a buyout in his contract that let's the Sox get out of the deal in 2009 for just 3 million dollars. If Thome gets 1100 total plate appearances in 2007 and 2008, however, the option "vest" and the Sox are on the hook for 13 million.

Jim Thome has 958 of the necessary 1100 PA for his option to vest.

That means he needs 142 over the final 49 games of the season

Thome has 422 PA this year in 105 games, an average of 4.02 per game.

At that rate, Thome would amass about 197 PA in 49 games

That's 55 more than he needs for the option to vest...

...however

55 pa at 4.02 per game is 13.68 games.

In other words, If Ken Griffey Junior's presence on the team can "erase" 14 or 15 Jim Thome starts, he'll keep the option from vesting.

Buying Thome out vs paying him his contract saves the team 10 million dollars. (3 million instead of 13.)

Griffey's going to cost the Sox at most 5 million dollars. 2 million for the buyout, and half of whatever was left of his 2008 salary, which totaled 12.5 million for the entire season, so say 3 million (it is almost certainly LESS than 3 million.)

So Griffey's NET "cost" is actually "negative" 5 million dollars.

For Nick Masset and what's-his-face-the-second-baseman, the Sox got 5 million dollars, two months of a future hall of famer who could help propel the team to the playoffs, got a ton of roster flexibility next season, and probably sold a few tickets based on Griffey's star value.

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