Monday, June 23, 2008

State of the Cubs (6/17 - 6/22)

Tuesday, June 17th @ Tampa Bay L 3-2
Cotts (L, 0-1), Balfour (W, 1-0) Percival (S, 16)
Wednesday, June 18th @ Tampa Bay L 5-4
Zambrano (L, 8-3), Sonnanstine (W, 8-3), Percival (S, 17)
Thursday, June 19th @ Tampa Bay L 8-3
Marmol (L, 1-2), Balfour (W, 2-o)
Friday, June 19th vs Chicago White Sox W 4-3
Linebrink (L, 2-2), Wood (W, 4-1)
Saturday, June 20th vs Chicago White Sox W 11-7
Contreras (L, 6-6), Marquis (W, 6-3), Wood (S, 19)
Sunday, June 21st vs Chicago White Sox W 7-1
Vazquez (L, 7-6), Dempster (W, 9-3)

Very few answers, a few new questions. Didn't learn anything about the Cubs this week. At home they are easily the best team in baseball, and for some reason (probably still small sample size) they're not as good on the road, that or they're just unlucky, which goes back to sample size. The Cubs haven't lost in Wrigley in over a month, they're 32-8 in that stadium. Doesn't matter what happens, two home runs early, two home runs middle, 9 runs here or there, you come to Wrigley Field, you lose.

The new questions, are Zambrano and Marmol. These are scary, your best starter is hurt, and your best reliever cannot find the strike zone. Zambrano should be back in a few weeks, but injuries to your shoulder are far more significant than elbow, forearm or hand injures for a pitcher, THANK GOD Giovanni Soto showed poise and awareness far beyond his years and called the trainers when he did. The Cubs can win the division without Z, but there is no chance they win a playoff series.

Carlos Marmol's last two outings have included five walks, five earned runs, two hit batsmen, a wild pitch, and a loss. His mechanics could be off because he hasn't been used as frequently, his arm could be injured because he's been used too much overall, or he could be turning into Rick Ankiel, and no, I don't mean a power hitting outfielder. Hopefully it's the mechanics, and the injury would still be preferable to him becoming a headcase, but regardless, that's another big, big piece of the Cubs puzzle, if it's lost, it's going to need to be replaced before the playoffs.

Still, the Cubs remain in an excellent position. They have a few chips in the farm system to deal to bolster the team, and they're now 4.5 up on the division, with the best team in baseball taking the field every day. Ryan Dempster is an honest to goodness all star, even though he's probably having a (once in a) career year.

87.6% chance of winning the division, 96.2% of making the post season

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