Monday, June 2, 2008

State of the cubs (5/26 - 6/1) AKA, the team I root for is really really good at baseball

MAY 26TH - JUNE 1ST
Monday, May 26th vs Los Angeles W 3-1
Billingsly (L, 4-6), Dempster (W, 6-2), Wood (S, 11)
Tuesday, May 27th vs Los Angeles W 3-1
Kuroda (L, 2-4), Gallagher (W, 2-1), Wood (S, 12)
Wednesday, May 28th vs Los Angeles W 2-1 (10 Inn)
Park (L, 1-1), Howry (W, 1-2)
Thursday, May 29th vs Colorado W 8-4
Herges (L, 2-2), Wuertz (W, 1-1)
Friday, May 30th vs Colorado W 10-9
Corpas (L, 0-3), Eyre (W, 2-0), Wood (S, 13)
Saturday, May 31st vs Colorado W 5-4
Rusch (L, 1-3), Dempster (W, 7-2), Marmol (S, 3)
Sunday, June 1st vs Colorado W 5-3
Jimenez (L, 1-6), Gallagher (W, 3-1), Wood (S, 14)

These are the weeks you dream of. The Cubs swept the Dodgers and the Rockies to go 7-0 on the homestand, and 7-0 on the week. Overall they've gone 15-2 in their last 17 at home and 17-6 in the last three weeks. With the exception of Monday's game, the Cubs trailed in every single contest, and managed to come back and win. There's no question that the Cubs offense is what makes this team go, but this week it was the pitching staff, and especially the bullpen that secured the majority of the victories.

And then there was Friday.

Much like the Kerry Wood 20 K game, and the game against the Astros in 89' you will see this game on Rain Delay Theater for the next 20 years. In the grand scheme of things, it means way less to this team than last year's 5 run comeback against the Brewers when Aramis Ramirez hit a bomb in the bottom of the 9th. It was also less wacky than last years game against the Rockies (Cubs lead 8-3 going into the top of the 9th, won 10-9.) There was little or no intrinsic baseball value to the friday comeback, in all likelihood that game is going to be the difference between the Cubs winning the division by 7 games and the Cubs winning the division by 8 games.

But screw it's intrinsic value. Friday was one of those things that sportswriters like to call "statement games" the statement being: "Nobody's beating this team at Wrigley Field."

The Cubs were down 4-0 before they even took an AB, they were down 7-0 in the bottom of the 3rd, 8-0 in the bottom of the 4th, 9-1 by the bottom of the 5th, and that was still the score going into the bottom of the 6th. Lou Piniella pulled both Derrick Lee and Geo Soto. Edmonds and Fukudome both hit homers in the bottom of the 6th, to make it 9-4.

In the 7th inning, the Cubs scored 5 more runs to take a 10-9 lead. For it's part, the offense just kept hitting fly balls. It was the bullpen that made it stand up. The Cubs pen only allowed 2 ER in 6 innings on a day when Ted Lilly got rocked and any fly ball hit out of the infield was carried into the bleachers.

Now the Cubs have to go on the road. The next 7 games are on the west coast, the next 5 games are all late starts (including a 9:40 pm first pitch on Friday, Jesus Christ MLB.) The Cubs will play 13 of their next 16 and 26 out of their next 32 on the road, although 3 of those "road" games are at US Cellular in what is essentially a 9 game home stand.

Tonight the Cubs also begin a stretch of 29 straight games against teams out of the NL Central. This is the perfect opportunity for the Cubs to cast away any last shred of doubt about them "only beating up on the Pirates" and "not being able to win on the road." As I showed last week with the Cubs BABIP home/road splits, I'm really not worried about the team's road offense, it'll come around, it's just a fluke brought on by small sample size, that being said, though the Padres are the perfect team to get fat off of, they do play in one of the worst, if not THE worst offensive ballparks in all of baseball, and if there were ever a perfect storm for a Cubs offensive letdown, it'd be this week, cause Dodger Stadium isn't exactly hitter friendly either.

So even if the Cubs road woes continue and they go 3-4 or 2-5 this week, don't worry about it. This morning's PECOTA projections have the Cubs finishing at 96-66 with an 85% chance of making the post season.

If you're feeling it, you're right, and the hard data proves it. This is easily the best team since 84, and possibly the best since 69 or 45, enjoy it Cubs fans.

1 comment:

The Awesome Sauce said...

Pacific Time sucks (and so does their teams, cities and people)