Tuesday, July 29, 2008

State of the Cubs (7/18 - 7/28)

Friday, July 18th @ Houston L 2-1
Howry (L, 3-3), Geary (W, 3-1)
Saturday, July 19th @ Houston L 4-1
Zambrano (L, 10-4), Rodriguez (W, 5-3), Valverde (S, 25)
Sunday, July 20th @ Houston W 9 -0
Dempster (W, 11-4), Backe (L, 6-10)

Monday, July 21st @ Arizona
L 2-0

Harden (L, 5-2), Johnson (W, 7-7), Quails (S, 2)
Tuesday, July 22nd @ Arizona L 9-2
Marquis (L, 6-6), Petit (W, 1-1)
Wednesday, July 23rd @ Arizona W 10-6
Lilly (W, 10-6), Davis (L, 5-5)
Thursday, July 24th vs Florida W 6-3
Olsen (L, 6-5), Zambrano (W, 11-4), Marmol (S, 4)
Friday, July 25th vs Florida L, 3-2
[Justin] Miller (W, 3-2), Howry (L, 3-4), Gregg (S, 21)
Saturday, July 26th vs Florida L 3-2
[Justin] Miller (W, 4-2), Gaudin (L, 5-4), Gregg (S, 22)
Sunday, July 27th vs Florida W 9-6
Hendrickson (L, 7-8), Gaudin (W, 6-4), Smardzjia (S, 1)

Monday, July 28th @ Milwaukee W 6-4
Gaudin (W, 7-4) Torres (L, 5-3) Marmol (S, 5)

Frustrating baseball.

That's about the easiest way to summarize the first nine games after the all star break. Bullpen bad, offense impotent, starters throwing really well with nothing to show for it. Games have never come easy for the Cubs in Houston or Arizona, or vs the Marlins anywhere, and I suppose given that 3-6 in 9 games vs those 3 clubs can almost be considered holding serve, but with the Brewers steamrolling through the national league, watching a 6 game lead evaporating to a tie while you're not getting blown out and you're giving up leads late is just eminently frustrating.

I believe baseball teams are what they are. Injuries not withstanding, teams don't get significantly better or worse. They play really well at certain points and really poorly at certain points, but things even out in the end. I also believe this Chicago Cubs team is a collection of excellent talent, coming together to form a great-borderline-excellent baseball team.

Sunday and Monday the Cubs looked and felt like the team they were earlier in the season when they were rolling off long winning streaks, crushing the baseball, and locking down leads late. Bobby Howry is probably not long for this team, but Chad Gaudin has stepped up, he may prove to be almost an important as Rich Harden down the stretch. Jeff Samardzija is probably going to be a starting pitcher in 2009, but he is going to be an invaluable cog in the bullpen if the Cubs are going to go deep into October.

And maybe, just maybe, Carlos Marmol has learned to pitch again.

Maybe.

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Awesome Bad Song of the Week



New Found Glory. Pop-Punk. Woooooooooo. This is a great band to listen to while you wait for your mom to pick you up from the movie theater.
So yea, this is a cover song -- "Kiss Me" originally done by Sixpence None The Richer, which was in the movie She's All That. A movie that I totally saw in the theaters when I was thirteen. After the movie ended, I listened to New Found Glory while I waited for my mom to pick me up.


Friday, July 25, 2008

State of the Sox

Ok, so I admit, there hasn't been one of these in a while, but guess what -- the Sox are still in first place. The State of the Sox has not changed.

However, today starts a very important stretch of seven games for the White Sox. They start a set of three in Detroit tonight, then they go to Minnesota for a four game series.

These 7 games = Very Important

57-43, 2.5 ahead of Minn, 5.5 ahead of Det

Very Important



Also -- This just in. Crede on the dl, welcome back Josh Fields.

Monday, July 14, 2008

State of the Cubs (6/30 - 7/13)

Monday, June 30th @ San Francisco W 9-2
Lilly (W, 9-5), Lilly (L, 3-12)
Tuesday, July 1st @ San Francisco L 2-1
Marquis (L, 6-5), Cain (W, 5-6) Wilson (S, 23)
Wednesday, July 2nd @ San Francisco W 6-5
Marmol (W, 2-3), Walker (L, 3-4), Wood (S, 21)
Thursday,July 3rd @ San Francisco L 8-3
Gallagher (L, 3-4), Lincecum (W, 10-1)
Friday, July 4th @ St Louis W 2-1
Zambrano (W, 9-3), Looper (L, 9-6), Wood (S, 22)
Saturday, July 5th @ St Louis L 5-4
Wood (L, 4-2), McClellan (W, 1-3)
Sunday, July 6th @ St Louis W 7-1
Marshall (W, 1-2), Wellemeyer (L, 7-4)


Tuesday, July 8th vs Cincinnati W 7-3
Harang (L, 3-11), Dempster (W, 10-3)
Wednesday, July 9th vs Cincinnati W 5-1
Cueto (L, 7-9), Zambrano (W, 10-3), Wood (S, 23)
Thursday, July 10th vs Cincinnati L 12-7
Arroyo (W, 7-7), Lilly (L, 9-6)
Friday, July 11th vs San Francisco W 3-1
Walker (L, 3-5), Howry (W, 3-2), Wood (S, 24)
Saturday, July 12th vs San Francisco W 8-7
Wilson (L, 0-2), Harden (W, 6-1) Marshall (W, 2-2)
Sunday, July 13th vs San Francisco L 4-2
Lincecum (W, 11-2), Dempster (L, 10-4), Wilson (S, 25)

A very special State of the Cubs double wide as we head into the all star break. Lack of updates last week can be blamed on laziness and lack of thoughts on the Rich Harden acquisition can be blamed on me being away from internet access for a period of 48 hours at the worst possible time.

Let's get the Rich Harden acquisition out of the way first:

If you think the Cubs made a mistake by dealing away the four guys they did, you're an idiot. I'm not going to bother with a long explanation of why, it's been done time and again ad nauseum on sports talk radio, in the papers, and on internet outlets that actually update in a timely manner. Suffice it to say, Rich Harden is going to make 5 starts that matter this season, and they'll all take place in October. If you'd rather have the potential that Gallagher becomes a number two starter in two years and the miniscule posibility that even on of the other three guys becoming even an average every day major leaguer over adding another number one starter who will increase your odds of winning in the playoffs and securing the first World Series title for this franchise IN ONE HUNDRED MOTHER FUCKING YEARS then you're a bad fan, and a fool.

Oh, the same deal that gave you a legitimate ace starter also added another quality arm to the bullpen. Just sayin.

Anywho, last week, the Cubs played the final 7 games of a 10 game road trip after being swept by the White Sox the weekend before. Though it pains me to type this because it's so damn hokey, this year's Giants motto ought to be "Lincecum and Cain and pray for rain" because beyond that, the Giants have Aaron Rowand and a lot of garbage. Bowker might be a decent player some day, but the team seems to be nothing more than a horrid amalgamation of quadruple-Aers and guys who were all stars back in the mid-to-late 90s.

In 29 innings vs the Cubs the past two weeks, Lincecum and Cain have given up 18 H and 4 ER, while striking out 36 and walking 8. that's a 1.24 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and a 4.5/1 K/BB ratio.

Normally one would probably feel bad to see their team lose 3 of 7 to the Giants, but given those numbers I'm shocked the Cubs were even able to steal Friday's game. No shame in losing to either of those two pitchers, but you should beat them every time someone else starts, and that's exactly what the Cubs did even if there were some... questionable games.

Carlos Marmol was bad. Twice. Bad last week in San Fran and really, horribly, terrifyingly bad in Chicago on Saturday. Behind a sterling performance from Rich Harden the Cubs lead 7-0 after 7 and 7-2 after 8. Marmol came in and... well even with a 5 run lead the Cubs had to bat again. Sean Marshall put together an incredible performance both on the mound and leading off the 11th with a single, and the Cubs were able to scratch across a run in the 11th to win a game they had no business winning after the performances of Marmol, Theriot, and Piniella.

Sandwiched between the two Giants series were 3 game sets against the Cardinals and Reds. The Cubs took two out of three in both, highlights included Zambrano's triumphant return, another amazing start by Z, a win from Dempster and an excellent performance from Sean Marshall against the Cards. Lowlights were Wood's performance in game 2 in St. Louis and a typical wind blowing out Ted Lilly game where Reds batters tattooed the entire Cubs staff and Adam Dunn hit a ball about seven thousand feet.

As Cubs fans, we've been spoiled by the team this season, ripping off 8 wins in a row and just bludgeoning opponents, seemingly without breaking a sweat. These past two weeks we haven't seen that kind of dominance, and we probably shouldn't expect to, instead these two weeks have been a pretty accurate microcosm of what this team really is, a ballclub not without it's blemishes, but capable of winning every time out, and one that is very very capable of winning the World Series with a little bit of luck at the right times.

57-38 at the All Star Break
PECOTA expected record 97-65
PECOTA playoff odds 94%

Thursday, July 10, 2008

State of the Cubs and State of the Sox...

...Will return next week to recap the past two weeks of baseball, and separate looks back at the first half of the season.

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Mike Fontenot or why high ISO guys make the best bench players

ISO or Isolated Power is a very simple stat. Slugging Percentage minus Batting Average*. Say a player slugs at .600 and has a .300 batting average, that gives him an ISO of .300 (it also makes him one of the ten or so best hitters in all of MLB.) It also means that for every ten times up to bat he's going to generate three extra bases. That could be a homer, a triple and a double, or three doubles. Good power hitters are going to generate high ISOs almost by accident (or, more accurately, by the product of their being power hitters.) In fact, if you jump over to ESPN's stats page and check out their ISO (or as they call it ISOP) leaders, you'll see the top of the list populated with the guys you'd automatically associate as being the best power hitters in baseball. As you might guess, the highest ever to end a season belongs to Bonds in 2001 when his ISO was .536. Sosa, McGwire, Bonds and Babe Ruth all topped .400 at various points.

Now the numbers those guys throw up are just gaudy because they're sluggers and their slugging percentage is just going to be naturally high, and thus their ISO isn't going to tell you anything you don't already know. Where ISO becomes a cool little stat to measure players value is with bench players†. It's also why I really like Mike Fontenot, even given his status as a grinder, his mullet, his ties to LSU and Ryan Theriot.

An average ISO is .120, a "singles hitter" is going to have an ISO around .80

Fontenot's ISO on the year is .207 which is great for a bench player. Does this mean he's a great baseball player? No, and truth be told he should never start, but considering he can play the middle infield with some degree of competence AND hit for power in limited at bats means he actually has substantial value as a bench player.

Darryl Ward's is .229. This number is why Darryl Ward is still in baseball.

For some South Side perspective, Toby Hall's is .194

And just for my own personal amusement, Ryan Theriot's ISO is .56 and Reed Johnson's is a slightly-better-than-I-expected .116.

Like most stats for bench guys, ISO is flawed because the sample size is going to be really small, but the stat passes what I like to call the "crusty old baseball guy" test. When you sit down and think of the guys that your average"crusty old baseball guy" is likley to name if you ask them to name good power hitting bench guys, the guys that they name usually have higher ISOs. Be aware that this is horrible methodology.

*PECOTA uses a modified version which weighs Triples and Doubles equally, the logic being that a Triple is indicitive of a player applying speed to a double to get an extra base, and not actually a measure of any extra power, so PECOTA ISO numbers might be slightly lower. In general, players at the major league level for whom ISO actually matters (like my guys above) aren't going to be guys that hit you very many triples. Guys that come off the bench who are actually capable of hitting triples are guys you hope can walk or single then steal a base to get into scoring position. High ISO bench guys are guys whose main role on the team to hit pinch hit home runs....

Terry Crowley's lucky he's in fuckin baseball!
We saw that Terry Crowley had the ability to sit on his ass for eight innings like any other fan the come up and break one open in the fuckin 9th! Terry Crowley's career ISO is only .125, but he had at least 3 seasons of +.170 ISO numbers.

at the major league level, when projecting minor leaguers and prospects, ISO's value increases exponentially as it's one of the most important indicators of future performance on higher levels of baseball.

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Phrase of the Month

Papa Charlie
[pah-puh chahr-lee
] adjective

-adjective
1. inherently Chicago: That pizza was surprisingly Papa Charlie.; That guy with the mustache wearing the Bears sweater eating the polish sausage is so Papa Charlie.



Origin: Wendy's; Papa Charlie's Roast Beef