Fixing the NFL, part 1

To anyone for whom it is not abundantly clear, I love the NFL. Love it.

I will not apologize for this love, but I will never deny what it is, and why I enjoy it. The NFL is the best sport in the world. No sport on earth takes strategy (or macro-strategy) and tactics (or micro-strategy) and marries them so successfully with wanton violence as well as professional football. It truly is the closest analog to war as it was fought before the days of firearms.

For someone who deplores machismo, jingoism, and materialistic tendencies, the NFL is my one capitulation to American excess. Nothing else perfectly capsulizes our culture this well. The NFL is SUVs and Big Macs, gun ownership and tax cuts, fake tits and shitty beer, it is entitlement issues and moral superiority.

The NFL satisfies the blood lust, love of spectacle, and unbridled desire for consumption that the more cultured among us like to keep in check because we realize doing so is necessary to maintain a functioning society. The NFL is the sociological equivalent of tilting your head back, tipping over a can of ReddiWip and spraying whip cream directly into your mouth. It's morally deplorable and undeniably glorious.

It manages to perfectly mix celebrity gossip with a concession towards self-aggrandizing rural superiority and the celebration of puritan attitudes of self denial and the embrace of backbreaking labor for its own sake. From toothless farmers to Madison Avenue socialites, people from every demographic and every walk of life worship in the same place on Sundays in the Fall: in front of our televisions.

The dawn of Sabermetirics has created a plain on which baseball can be enjoyed intellectually, and its perfect symmetry - so perfect that the time it takes a ball thrown from the mound to home and then from home to second varies by only tenths of a second from the time it takes for someone standing six feet off of first base to run and dive into second - makes even the spiritual enjoyment of baseball more than possible.

That such a genuinely genteel and zen like activity could ever be considered a pastime of a culture so obsessed with action and expressiveness speaks either of a culture so warped from what it once was, or of a theory inherently flawed from the outset.

The NFL is America's real pastime. Baseball is too slow, and too pastoral. Baseball is poetic, baseball is less a sport where athletic abilities are celebrated, but rather a game at which those who possess skill, rather than talent are the most successful.

The wistful ruminations of people like Ken Burns, Walt Whitman and George Will have elevated baseball to mythical status. While baseball no doubt deserves this lofty praise, all three of these men have bent over backwards to equate this game with course of the United States. Perhaps it is a reflection of their view of the country rather than their view of the sport that has pushed them so far off the mark. Comparing baseball to America is insulting to both baseball and America, for it truly is football that represents us as a people.

Somehow I love it all. Despite how much I may hate almost every one of the things the NFL stands for individually I cannot help but embrace it on the whole. It is so striking to watch the NFL and see all of society's flaws projected back at you. I fear not of turning into a flower as Narcissus did while I gaze at my own reflection for I know that I turned long ago, and never once have I considered looking back.

Yes, indeed, I love the NFL. Given this unconditional love, it may surprise many to learn that I believe the NFL is utterly broken, but I do, and parity is the culprit.

As we step into the off-season over the next several weeks, I intend to look at what parity means in the NFL, why it exists, and how to fix it by looking at ways to improve the schedule, the draft, and the salary cap.

State of the Cubs (5/5 - 5/11)

MAY 5TH - MAY 11TH
Monday, May 5th @ Cincinnati L 3-5
Dempster (L, 4-1), Cueto (W, 2-3), Cordero (S, 5)
Tuesday, May 6th @ Cincinnati W 3-0
Zambrano (W, 5-1), Harang (L, 1-5) Wood (S, 5)
Wednesday, May 7th @ Cincinnati L 9-0
Leiber (L, 2-2), Volquez (W, 4-1)

Friday, May 9th vs Arizona W 3-1
Haren (L, 4-2), Lilly (W, 3-4), Wood (S, 6)
Saturday, May 10th vs Arizona W 7-2
Qualls (L, 0-4), Eyre (W, 1-0)
Sunday, May 11th vs Arizona W 6-4
Pena (L, 0-1), Marmol (W, 1-0), Wood (S, 7)

I made a comment to TAS on Thursday to the effect of "If there's any team in baseball that needs an off day and a home stand, it's the Cubs. Unfortunately they've got the Diamondbacks coming in."

Coming into the weekend, the Cubs had dropped 9 of 13, lost 4 straight series, three straight against division rivals. Do understand, that I have zero doubt that the Cubs, barring major injury, will win the division. This was as true last Thursday as it is today. Monday morning's PECOTA projections show the Cubs have a better than 73% chance of making the post season, highest in the majors.

You feel better about your odds when your team is actually winning baseball games, and with the D-backs coming in, and the Cubs slumping, the chances of turning things around this past weekend looked bleak. I thought the Cubs might be able to pull a series win out of their hats, but by about 1:30 on Friday afternoon, I was certain we were in for a loooong series.

Fortunately, that was all Ted Lilly would allow, striking out ten as the Cubs got their offense from Lee, Soriano and Lilly giving the team a 3-1 come from behind win. Lilly's 7.0 IP, 10K performance is arguably his best as a Cub.

Saturday, Dempster was one questionable call on a ball away from throwing 6 shutout innings, but sometimes the calls don't go your way. It didn't matter, the Cubs came from behind again, dropping 6 on Chad Qualis and Brandon Medders in the 7th. Qualis had a sub 1 ERA coming into the game. For two straight days, the Cubs played honest to goodness championship baseball against the best team in the national league.

Sunday, the Cubs scratched Zambrano to ensure his start didn't get washed out. Sean Gallagher got the start and though his final line wasn't very impressive, he threw four sparkling innings before tiring in the fifth. Gallagher was a starter at AAA Iowa, but has been in the pen for 14 days before being stretched out Sunday. He hit 91-94 on the gun, showed decent command and had great stuff at times. Both pitchers were squeezed both high and on the outside (the strike zone was the size of the proverbial teacup yesterday, Feisty) which may have cost Gallagher a run.

Bad Chad Fox came on to put out the fire and promptly walked two batters with the bases loaded. The Cubs were able to draw even in the 7th on Reed Johnson's homer (Johnson, by the way, remains awful at baseball.) Darryl Ward came to the plate in the eighth with the bases loaded and one down.

Wood nailed down the save. Cubs sweep the Diamondbacks.

So everything is fine. Just as it was on Thursday, it just feels a lot better now. Four games this week against the brutal, brutal Padres, and three more against the Pirates who have won 5 in a row, but are 0-6 against the Cubs this year.

The way I see it, the Cubs are a legitimately good team in an awful division. They should win the Central by at least 6 games, but they're 3 or 4 pieces away from being world series contenders.

The Cubs need a legitimate #2 starter. This is going to be the hardest piece to find. Who knows, maybe you catch lightening in a bottle with Gallagher, in all likelihood you're going to have to go and trade for a piece from a team that decides to be a seller at the deadline.

They also need another reliable arm in the bullpen. I kinda think this one will work itself out... Relievers are very fleeting. By definition, they're the worst players on your team. Pitchers who aren't good enough to be closers or starters. The Cubs have guys in Howrey, Wurtz and Eyre who have shown they're more than capable of being good relievers in the past it's highly unlikely they'll be as bad as they've been to start the season. If you can get one of those three guys good to pair with Marmol and Wood (who I'm warming on) you should be fine.

The Cubs need an outfielder who can play Center, either as a starter or a 4th outfielder, because -and I'm going to keep beating the drum on this one- Reed Johnson is not the answer. If it were up to me, I'd play Felix Pie every day. Soriano is starting to hit, Lee, Fukudome and Ramirez are all playing well. Soto is hitting like Mike Piazza right now. The team can afford to let Pie start for a few weeks and see if he can't figure major league pitching out. The guy bats like .450 at AAA, he's not going to get better down there, he's also not going to get better playing once every five days. He needs to start regularly.

If you can find a guy to start in center, great, if you can find a starting corner outfielder, you can move Fukudome to center. Regardless, you need to add another outfielder. It looks like Hendry wants to take a shot on Jim Edmonds. Which... whatever. If he's got anything left in the tank it's worth taking a flier on him, I just don't think he's got anything left in the tank.

Finally, the Cubs need a middle infielder. Second or short, doesn't matter, just somebody that gets Fontenot off the team and Theriot to the bench. Ideally you'd play this addition at their natural position and Cedeno at the other postion, you'd have DeRosa be the super sub and Theriot the backup. That's probably not going to happen, though, so hopefully you can strengthen the team at 2nd, and make your team better by playing Cedeno at short more often (thus keeping Hustle McFaggerton on the bench.)

Reed Johnson's OPS is .645

On base percentage

plus

Slugging percentage

Six Fourty-Five

For the month of may it's .374

HIS SLUGGING PERCENTAGE FOR THE SEASON IS .295

HIS SLUGGING PERCENTAGE IS WORSE THAN TED LILLY'S

His VORP is -1.9. Ted Lilly's offensive VORP is 1.2. For the season, he has literally produced worse offensive numbers THAN ONE OF THE WORST HITTING PITCHERS I'VE EVER SEEN!

His WARP1 is -0.1 which means that playing Reed Johnson for a season will actually cost you one tenth of a victory over AAA level call up replacement player X. His EQA is .237.

Folks, I hate to be the one to break it to you, but this guy blows. I know he's grindy and white and grindy and he has a soul patch and he's not Soriano and everyone hates Soriano, and he grinds but give it a rest.

The 104 Game Baseball Season

In an effort to make baseball an event, something special, a league on par with the NFL in buzzworthyness and gambling possibilities. I’ve completely destroyed most baseball traditions to present to you:

THE 104 GAME BASEBALL SEASON:

In order to create the proper 104 game season, we have to do a little realignment:

Contract the Kansas City Royals
Combine the Florida Marlins and Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Move the Florida Franchise to the AL
Move the Brewers back to the AL
Create two divisions in each league of 7 teams each

The 104 game season consists of 26 weeks of baseball. Just like in the NFL, weeks are solidly defined. They begin on Friday and end on Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday.

Individual Ws and Ls don't matter anymore, instead, what matters are points, just as in Hockey. Points will be awarded for winning a series.

Both division winners, and two wild card teams make the playoffs from each league. Wild Card teams will be the two teams with the highest points after the two division winners.

There would be 3 types of "series" during the season. "Standard," "Interleague," and "Divisional."

"Standard" series consist of 4 game intra-league series, played on Thu-Fri-Sat-Sun with 1 NL and one AL series being Fri-Sat-Sun-Mon.

The two Monday games, will consist of an evening and a night game, with scheduling designed around making the wrap-around Monday series the two best of the weekend

Scoring for Standard series:

Lose the series = 0 points
Win the series = 2 points
Sweep the series = 4 points
Split = 1 per team

"Interleague" will be three game series played on Fri-Sat-Sun with two prime time series, one AL and one NL, one being played Fri-Sun-Mon, the other Fri-Sat-Mon.

These series will consist of two home series and two road. They would be schueled by random draw before the season, with the exception of one series devoted to a regional matchup - sox/cubs, mets/yankees, reds/indians, etc.

Scoring for Interleague series:

Lose = 0
Win = 2
Sweep = 3

"Division" series are five game series Thu-Fri-Sat-Sun-Tuesday (to avoid Monday night football.) All the Sunday games will be afternoon games. These are always divisional matchups and they're not scheduled until the week before. Two home series, two road series, based on points standings heading into the final month. The top 5 teams in each division play each other one time each, the bottom two teams in the division will play each other twice, and the bottom two teams in the opposite division in the same league one series each.

So a regular season would look like this

Week 1-12 Standard
Week 13-16 Interleague
Week 17-22 Standard
Week 23-26 Division

The all star game is abolished since it no longer matters, however, during the interleague stretch, players will convene on the four Tuesdays at neutral sites for the BALCO home run derby, the Adidas running bases tournament, the Rollings 500 tournament, and the Tom Emanski throw-a-ball-from-center field-into-a-garbage-can-tipped-over-at-home tournament. Each of the 28 teams will submit a player to each of the four tournaments, the players will compete on both an overall scale, and against their division, The four division winners will take home 3 points for their teams, the 2^nd place 2, and the 3^rd and 4^th place 1 point each, the overall top highest scorer in each league will earn their team an extra 1 point.

HERE COMES THE HOOK

I cannot believe it's been ten years. As if 1998 didn't feel long enough ago already:

05-06-98



What could have been.

Edit: I miss when Sportscenter would put the home broadcast audio faintly behind their highlights. I suppose it doesn't matter as it's been about ten years since I watched Sportscenter.

The Metagame

Runners on first and second, two down, bottom of the eighth, 2-2 count. Home team trails by two runs.

Pitcher winds and fires and the ball misses the outside of the plate by a half inch, ball three.

The full count means that the runner on first is breaking with the pitch, which is a slider tagged into right field splitting the gap and rolling all the way to the wall, the runner on first scores, the game is tied, but only because of ball three. Put that first pitch in the zone and, assuming the batter swings and has the same result that runner on first is still standing on third base, and the home team still trails by one.

Metagaming is pretty much my favorite... thing. Of anything. The ability to break something down and allow for the normal rules to be made into just a foundation is invigorating to me. It's what makes baseball so wonderful. It's also the primary reason I enjoy poker, why I flirted with Magic: The Gathering before the hobby got too expensive (and nerdy.) Discovering the metagame in anything is like adding your topping of choice to ice cream, or perhaps more aptly, sipping a microbrew for the first time. Only once you realize that there's an entire level, above, and several times bigger than than the one you already enjoyed can you truly experience the thing you claim you love. It's self actualization on a much more specific level.

The problem with metagaming is twofold. First, an almost incompatibility with anyone on any subject when one person is on one side of the metagaming threshold and the second person resides on the other, especially with sports. I am loathe to tell anyone I enjoy sports until I have discovered if they are aware of the bigger concepts of the games. I don't want to hear half baked arguments on the merits of a player filled with un random clichés, nor do I want to project myself as a jock meathead to someone who couldn't identify the Cover 2 or understand the implications of the NFL salary cap.

Second, the realization that a metagame exists in almost anything worth investing your time in. Even if it's not a game, or a sport, knowing that you're not going to make it to that second level is frustrating, and occasionally removes ones (or at least my) ability to enjoy certain things when I know I'm missing out on a lot. I've missed entire genres of music because of this, and it's the biggest reason why I ignore the NBA.