State of the Cubs (7/28 - 8/3)

Monday, July 28th @ Milwaukee W 6-4
Gaudin (W, 7-4), Torres (L, 5-3), Marmol (S, 5)
Tuesday, July 29th @ Milwaukee W 7-1
Zambrano (W, 12-4), Sheets (L, 10-4)
Wednesday, July 30th @ Milwaukee W 7-2
Dempster (W, 12-4), Parra (L, 9-4)
Thursday, July 31st @ Milwaukee W 11-4
Harden (W, 1-1), Bush (L, 5-9)
Friday, August 1st vs Pittsburgh L 3-0
Karstens (W, 1-0), Marquis (L, 6-7), Grabow (S, 1)
Saturday, August 2nd vs Pittsburgh W 5-1
Maholm (L, 7-7), Lilly (W, 11-6)
Sunday, August 3rd vs Pittsburgh W 8-5
Hansen (L, 1-4), Gaudin (BS, W, 8-4), Marmol (S, 6)

Satisfying baseball.

Following Monday's seesaw victory over the Brewers in Milwaukee, in what felt like a playoff game, the Cubs went on to drub the Brewers in the next three by a combined score of 25-7. The Brewers pitching was bad, defense was worse and the bats were stifled by four outstanding performances from Lilly, Zambrano, Dempster, and Harden.

Rich Harden, by the way, in 4 starts as a Cub, is 1-1, he should be 4-0. In 27 1/3rd he's given up a grand total of three runs on three solo homers. He's also struck out 39 while posting a 1.11 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. Rich Harden is really, really, really good at sports, and when healthy, he's a better pitcher than Carlos Zambrano.

Jason Marquis took the ball on friday and gave the Cubs a quality start, while the bats were shut down by Matt Karstens. The Cubs had the bases loaded in the 4th, and 2 on in the 5th, 6th and 8th and couldn't plate a single run. I don't really go in for the whole "letdown game" concept, but if ever you're allowed one, it'd be in a game in which you're coming off a 4 game series sweep of the team that was tied with you as early as last Sunday morning.

Saturday and Sunday the Cubs took care of business, despite a not so great start on Saturday by Ted Lilly in which he worked out of a few really bad jams and got some really nice breaks. Sunday the Cubs appeared to be crusing, they took Z out to save some wear on his arm, the bullpen kinda shat itself, then, like a big brother who comes across his younger sibling playing with his toys, the Cubs simply said "not for you" and swiped the game back from the Pirates with back to back homers in the bottom of the 8th.

Carlos Marmol was able to get the save. I think I trust him again. Probably... mabye.

State of the Cubs (6/30 - 7/13)

Monday, June 30th @ San Francisco W 9-2
Lilly (W, 9-5), Lilly (L, 3-12)
Tuesday, July 1st @ San Francisco L 2-1
Marquis (L, 6-5), Cain (W, 5-6) Wilson (S, 23)
Wednesday, July 2nd @ San Francisco W 6-5
Marmol (W, 2-3), Walker (L, 3-4), Wood (S, 21)
Thursday,July 3rd @ San Francisco L 8-3
Gallagher (L, 3-4), Lincecum (W, 10-1)
Friday, July 4th @ St Louis W 2-1
Zambrano (W, 9-3), Looper (L, 9-6), Wood (S, 22)
Saturday, July 5th @ St Louis L 5-4
Wood (L, 4-2), McClellan (W, 1-3)
Sunday, July 6th @ St Louis W 7-1
Marshall (W, 1-2), Wellemeyer (L, 7-4)


Tuesday, July 8th vs Cincinnati W 7-3
Harang (L, 3-11), Dempster (W, 10-3)
Wednesday, July 9th vs Cincinnati W 5-1
Cueto (L, 7-9), Zambrano (W, 10-3), Wood (S, 23)
Thursday, July 10th vs Cincinnati L 12-7
Arroyo (W, 7-7), Lilly (L, 9-6)
Friday, July 11th vs San Francisco W 3-1
Walker (L, 3-5), Howry (W, 3-2), Wood (S, 24)
Saturday, July 12th vs San Francisco W 8-7
Wilson (L, 0-2), Harden (W, 6-1) Marshall (W, 2-2)
Sunday, July 13th vs San Francisco L 4-2
Lincecum (W, 11-2), Dempster (L, 10-4), Wilson (S, 25)

A very special State of the Cubs double wide as we head into the all star break. Lack of updates last week can be blamed on laziness and lack of thoughts on the Rich Harden acquisition can be blamed on me being away from internet access for a period of 48 hours at the worst possible time.

Let's get the Rich Harden acquisition out of the way first:

If you think the Cubs made a mistake by dealing away the four guys they did, you're an idiot. I'm not going to bother with a long explanation of why, it's been done time and again ad nauseum on sports talk radio, in the papers, and on internet outlets that actually update in a timely manner. Suffice it to say, Rich Harden is going to make 5 starts that matter this season, and they'll all take place in October. If you'd rather have the potential that Gallagher becomes a number two starter in two years and the miniscule posibility that even on of the other three guys becoming even an average every day major leaguer over adding another number one starter who will increase your odds of winning in the playoffs and securing the first World Series title for this franchise IN ONE HUNDRED MOTHER FUCKING YEARS then you're a bad fan, and a fool.

Oh, the same deal that gave you a legitimate ace starter also added another quality arm to the bullpen. Just sayin.

Anywho, last week, the Cubs played the final 7 games of a 10 game road trip after being swept by the White Sox the weekend before. Though it pains me to type this because it's so damn hokey, this year's Giants motto ought to be "Lincecum and Cain and pray for rain" because beyond that, the Giants have Aaron Rowand and a lot of garbage. Bowker might be a decent player some day, but the team seems to be nothing more than a horrid amalgamation of quadruple-Aers and guys who were all stars back in the mid-to-late 90s.

In 29 innings vs the Cubs the past two weeks, Lincecum and Cain have given up 18 H and 4 ER, while striking out 36 and walking 8. that's a 1.24 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and a 4.5/1 K/BB ratio.

Normally one would probably feel bad to see their team lose 3 of 7 to the Giants, but given those numbers I'm shocked the Cubs were even able to steal Friday's game. No shame in losing to either of those two pitchers, but you should beat them every time someone else starts, and that's exactly what the Cubs did even if there were some... questionable games.

Carlos Marmol was bad. Twice. Bad last week in San Fran and really, horribly, terrifyingly bad in Chicago on Saturday. Behind a sterling performance from Rich Harden the Cubs lead 7-0 after 7 and 7-2 after 8. Marmol came in and... well even with a 5 run lead the Cubs had to bat again. Sean Marshall put together an incredible performance both on the mound and leading off the 11th with a single, and the Cubs were able to scratch across a run in the 11th to win a game they had no business winning after the performances of Marmol, Theriot, and Piniella.

Sandwiched between the two Giants series were 3 game sets against the Cardinals and Reds. The Cubs took two out of three in both, highlights included Zambrano's triumphant return, another amazing start by Z, a win from Dempster and an excellent performance from Sean Marshall against the Cards. Lowlights were Wood's performance in game 2 in St. Louis and a typical wind blowing out Ted Lilly game where Reds batters tattooed the entire Cubs staff and Adam Dunn hit a ball about seven thousand feet.

As Cubs fans, we've been spoiled by the team this season, ripping off 8 wins in a row and just bludgeoning opponents, seemingly without breaking a sweat. These past two weeks we haven't seen that kind of dominance, and we probably shouldn't expect to, instead these two weeks have been a pretty accurate microcosm of what this team really is, a ballclub not without it's blemishes, but capable of winning every time out, and one that is very very capable of winning the World Series with a little bit of luck at the right times.

57-38 at the All Star Break
PECOTA expected record 97-65
PECOTA playoff odds 94%